The second division that I will be looking at and continuing my blog series of previewing the MLB season is the National League East. The first team that I will be looking at is the defending NL Eastern Division champs: Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta is coming off winning the National League East for the 3rd straight year in the 2020 shortened MLB season. They made it to the NLCS, but ended up blowing a 3-1 game lead, losing in 7 games to the eventual World Series Champions, Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves have all types of star power in their team, from Ronald Acuña Jr. to 2020 MVP Freddie Freeman to stud pitchers like Max Fried and Mike Soroka. Let’s look at if they added enough players to make them get over the hurdle, or if the departures will hurt them in the long run. They had a great team last and honestly, should’ve gone to the World Series. This year though, the entire NL East got better. I would say they are the most competitive division in baseball.
| Additions | Departures |
| RHP Carl Edwards Jr. | RHP Mike Foltynewicz |
| RHP Charlie Morton | RHP Shane Greene |
| LHP Drew Smyly | LHP Cole Hamels |
| RHP Josh Tomlin (Re-Signed) | RHP Felix Hernandez |
| 3B Pablo Sandoval (Re-Signed) | RHP Mark Melancon |
| Infielder Jason Kipnis | RHP Darren O’Day |
| Infielder Jake Lamb | Outfielder Adam Duvall |
| Outfielder Marcell Ozuna (Re-Signed) | Outfielder Nick Markakis |
| Utility Ehire Adrianza |
Looking at their acquisitions on paper, I would say the additions out weigh the departures. What was key for the Braves, and what they had to do, was bring back Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna, behind Freeman, was Atlanta’s best offensive player last year and if it wasn’t for Freeman having an amazing, Ozuna would have probably won MVP. Another key acquisition for them was signing Charlie Morton early in the offseason. Morton was a big signing because it gives the Braves a veteran arm in the rotation to go behind the young arms in Max Fried, Mike Soroka, and Ian Anderson. I believe where they might have gotten hurt from this offseason is in the bullpen. They lost 3 guys to free agency who played important roles for them last year. A big question heading into the spring and the season is who will close out games for them?
Projected Starting Rotation
| 1 | Mike Soroka |
| 2 | Max Fried |
| 3 | Charlie Morton |
| 4 | Ian Anderson |
| 5 | Kyle Wright |
As far as starting rotations go, the Braves have one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball. Above is who I believe will be the starting rotation in the beginning of the season. They have some options for the 5th starter spot, as they signed free-agent lefty Drew Smyly in the offseason, as well as having a plethora of young arms down in the minors ready to go. Another option they can go with besides Wright as the 5th starter, is righty Bryse Wilson, who Dodgers fans will remember made a name for himself in the NLCS last year shutting the Dodgers down in the game of life. I went and penciled Kyle Wright in, because the dude’s a stud. He went to Vanderbilt, which is every pitchers’ dream in high school to go to because they are a pitching factory down there in Tennessee having produced arms like David Price and Walker Buehler, as well as having two guys projected to in the top 10 in this year’s draft. He is questionable as he has yet to find his footing in the big leagues really, as he has only pitched in 63 2/3 innings throughout parts of 3 seasons. I think this year will be a breakout year for him. As stated before, adding Morton helps solidify the rotation with a veteran who will log innings for the team. The one big question when it comes to rotation is, will Mike Soroka 1) be ready by Opening Day and 2) bounce back and be the guy who he was before rupturing his Achilles last year. As of this writing, he’s uncertain for Opening Day, but if I were the Braves, I wouldn’t rush him back. I would be patient with him so that when you do need him the most, in September and presumably October, he will be rested and ready to go.
Projected Line-Up
| 1 | RF Ronald Acuña Jr. | R |
| 2 | 2B Ozzie Albies | S |
| 3 | 1B Freddie Freeman | L |
| 4 | LF Marcell Ozuna | R |
| 5 | 3B Austin Riley | R |
| 6 | SS Dansby Swanson | R |
| 7 | C Travis d’Arnaud | R |
| 8 | CF Christian Pache | R |
| 9 | P Pitcher | – |
When it comes to lineups, the Braves may have one of the best lineups in the National League. They’re deep and have all types of hitters. Meaning, that they don’t just swing for the fences. They spray the ball all of the field, and their lineup is very balanced. One of the most important things they did this offseason, as I said before, they had to bring back Marcell Ozuna. He gives Freddie Freeman protection, as well as deepens the lineup. One thing that Atlanta did by bringing Ozuna back, was they basically said they are willing to have the defensive liability that comes with Ozuna playing the field in order to have his bat in the lineup. This is just one of the reasons as to why the National League needs to adopt the DH. Atlanta must think that there will be a DH in the National League starting in 2022 because it will be part of the new CBA. Other names that stand out are former number 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson and 3rd Baseman Austin Riley. Swanson was finally able to have an offensive-breakout season last year, as he had his best offensive season in his short career. He has always been a great defensive shortstop, but until last year, he was never able to put together a well-rounded offensive season. I’m sure the Braves are hoping for a similar season from Dansby. Riley on the other hand, had a great first month in 2019, but fell off and struggled. Atlanta has to be hoping Riley is able to produce more like the way he did when he first came up.
2021 PECOTA NL East Projections
Taking into account everything I talked about, I believe the NL East runs through Atlanta. Yes, the Mets now have a competent owner who is willing to spend no matter what. Yes, the Phillies fixed their biggest weakness of 2020, their bullpen in the offseason. Yes, Nationals got better and believe to have their biggest strength back healthy, the starting rotation. Yes, the Marlins are on the up and up, and are only getting better. But, Atlanta has proven in the best that they are the team to beat when it comes to reigning atop the NL East. I’m predicting the Braves finish this season in 1st place. I am obviously disagreeing with PECOTA, but I just don’t believe the Braves fell off that much from last year. And I just don’t think the Phillies did that much to make themselves better than the Braves. It’s going to be a three team race, between Mets, Nationals, and Braves, and I see the Braves retaining their NL East crown.
